Draft forecasts to 2040

The Metropolitan Council updates its 30-year regional and local forecasts of population, households and employment at least once per decade. The forecasts express future expectations based on an understanding of regional dynamics, and representing expected outcomes of policies and planning. Consistent with Minnesota Statutes 473.146 and 473.859, these forecasts provide a shared foundation for coordinated, comprehensive planning by the Council and local governments.

The regional forecast is premised on an understanding of the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro's situation within the larger, national economy. The region's business conditions and regional competitive advantages determine regional economic and employment levels, which in turn prompt population growth through migration.

The local forecasts address the geographic distribution of population, households and employment. Regional totals are located to specific places -- communities and zones -- through a real estate market model. The model simulates and projects real estate supply and demand, assuming best-use and value-maximizing decisions of households, site selectors and developers. The model accounts for the future regional transportation network, regional land use policies, and local comprehensive plans.

Metropolitan Council staff released a preliminary regional forecast on April 12, 2012 and released an updated regional forecast on February 12, 2014. The Council released preliminary local forecasts on September 11, 2013, and draft local forecasts for public comment on February 19, 2014. The Council welcomes comments on the draft forecasts during the Thrive public comment period. The Council will formally adopt revised forecasts in May 2014 in conjunction with adoption of the Thrive MSP 2040 plan.

Local government comments on preliminary forecasts can be addressed to Sector Representatives (http://metrocouncil.org/Communities/Planning/Local-Planning-Assistance/Sectore-Reps.aspx). The Council will accept comments on the draft forecasts through April 28, 2014.

For more information on Metropolitan Council forecasts, contact Research@metc.state.mn.us.